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The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations...
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The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Abstract We examine an environmental policy which may be revisited by a new administration. We allow for pollution to be persistent over time and for uncertainty in next period's environmental policy. When pollution is non-persist...
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Abstract We examine an environmental policy which may be revisited by a new administration. We allow for pollution to be persistent over time and for uncertainty in next period's environmental policy. When pollution is non-persistent, we show that regulatory uncertainty is inconsequential for output, pollution, or emission fees. However, when pollution is persistent, we find that a more likely reelection of a stringent administration has the unintended (positive) consequence of reducing current pollution. We also measure the inefficiencies stemming from ignoring pollution persistence and from policy uncertainty, identifying in which contexts they are severe or negligible.
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We consider the implications of uncertainty regarding the persistence of inflation for the conduct of monetary policy in the context of a stylized New Keynesian model under the governance of a Taylor-type rule. Both Bayesian and r...
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We consider the implications of uncertainty regarding the persistence of inflation for the conduct of monetary policy in the context of a stylized New Keynesian model under the governance of a Taylor-type rule. Both Bayesian and robust (or ambiguity-averse) approaches are employed. The result one might have expected based on the seminal paper of Brainard (1967) which implies attenuation in policy responses, does not hold for the case of uncertain inflation persistence in either the Bayesian or robust cases. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Abstract Introduction Pill testing is regarded as a controversial harm reduction intervention and provides an ideal case study for examining how policy change comes about. Two Australian jurisdictions were analysed to explore fact...
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Abstract Introduction Pill testing is regarded as a controversial harm reduction intervention and provides an ideal case study for examining how policy change comes about. Two Australian jurisdictions were analysed to explore factors that may account for policy change by comparing the ACT which allowed a pill testing trial, and NSW where pill testing has not been permitted. Methods The analysis was conducted using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). Data sources were first coded to establish the subsystem actors beliefs and advocacy coalitions; then coded using a deductive approach and classified against core dimensions of the ACF. An inductive approach was then applied to generate and link themes in the data. Results A dominant and minority coalition was identified in each jurisdictions' policy subsystem. The results show how in the ACT a dominant ‘harm reduction’ coalition shifted their secondary beliefs and introduced a pill testing policy. Whereas in NSW, a shift in both the secondary and policy core beliefs of the dominant ‘law enforcement’ coalition was required, something which rarely occurs according to the ACF. Discussion and Conclusions The analysis supports the ACF's assertion that advocacy coalitions will respond to pressures for change by restricting change to secondary beliefs, while keeping policy core beliefs intact. It also demonstrates that secondary and policy core beliefs matter in the context of minority and dominant coalitions. Further research is needed to explore whether a minority coalition's strategic re‐framing of an issue to align with the policy core beliefs of their opponents would have more success than advocating from their own belief paradigm.
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Rational expectations models of staggered price/wage contracts have failed to replicate the observed persistence in inflation and unemployment during disinflationary periods. The current literature on this persistency puzzle has f...
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Rational expectations models of staggered price/wage contracts have failed to replicate the observed persistence in inflation and unemployment during disinflationary periods. The current literature on this persistency puzzle has focused on augmenting the nominal contract model with imperfect credibility and learning. In this paper, I re-examine the persistency puzzle by focusing on the discretionary nature of monetary policy. I show that when the central bank is allowed to re-optimize a quadratic loss function each period, imperfect credibility and learning, even in the absence of staggered contracts, can generate a significant amount of inflation persistence and employment losses during a disinflationary period.
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The purpose of this paper is to test the presence of Matthew effects in different types of public funding for innovation - non-refundable grants, subsidized loans and tax credits. According to the literature, Matthew effect refers...
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The purpose of this paper is to test the presence of Matthew effects in different types of public funding for innovation - non-refundable grants, subsidized loans and tax credits. According to the literature, Matthew effect refers to the impact of past accessing to public funds on reputation, which increases the probability of accessing in the present. The dataset is made of 966 firms that accessed the Technological Argentinean Fund (FONTAR), main instrument to foster innovation in Argentina, during 2007-2013 - 3300 observations. Results confirm the existence of Matthew effects: past accessing to FONTAR increases the probability of accessing in the present, but only when different instruments are taken altogether. Then, Matthew effect is positively associated with the diversification of access to promotional instruments rather than the repeated access to one type of funding tool. Additionally, results show that firm's innovation investments, R&D activities, and human resources, explain the increase in probability of accessing, which provides evidence regarding the presence of capability effects. All of this suggests that once the firm enters the system of public funding, it remains with an active innovative behaviour, not just because of reputation effects, but because it has accumulated capabilities in the pursuit of a technological advantage.
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The dynamic effects and relative importance of monetary shocks in the US business cycle are studied using a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs. The model is ...
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The dynamic effects and relative importance of monetary shocks in the US business cycle are studied using a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood using data on output, real money balances, and the nominal interest rate. Econometric results indicate that the model has a strong internal propagation mechanism that can explain the persistent and hump-shaped response of US output and consumption to monetary shocks.
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Background: In October 2007, British Columbia started to cover the cost of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) donepezil, galantamine, and rivastigmine for patients with mild to moderate dementia and prominent Alzheimer's disease. O...
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Background: In October 2007, British Columbia started to cover the cost of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) donepezil, galantamine, and rivastigmine for patients with mild to moderate dementia and prominent Alzheimer's disease. Objectives: To examine the impact of this policy on persistence with ChEIs. Methods: A population based cohort study was conducted using British Columbia administrative health data. We examined 45,537 new ChEI users aged 40 years and older between 2001 and 2012; 20,360 (45%) started the treatment after the coverage policy was launched. Patients were followed until treatment discontinuation, defined as a ChEI-free gap of 90 days, death, or December 2013. Persistence on ChEIs was estimated using survival analysis and competing risk approach. Hazards of discontinuation were compared using competing risk Cox regression with propensity adjustment. Results: Patients who started ChEI therapy after the introduction of the coverage policy had a significantly longer persistence. Median ChEI persistence until discontinuation or death was 9.37 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.0-39.7) and 17.6 months (95% CI 16.9-18.3) in patients who started therapy before and after the new policy, respectively. The propensity-adjusted hazard ratio for discontinuing therapy was 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.94). Similar patterns were observed for persistence with the first ChEI (propensity-adjusted hazard ratio of 0.94; 95% CI 0.91-0.98). In rivastigmine users, the hazard ratio was insignificant (0.98; 95% CI 0.92-1.02). Conclusions: The British Columbia ChEI coverage policy was associated with significantly prolonged persistence with donepezil and galantamine, but not rivastigmine.
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In this paper, we examine the inflation persistence puzzle by applying the robust control approach of Hansen and Sargent (2008). In line with the literature suggesting that inflation persistence may be affected by the monetary pol...
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In this paper, we examine the inflation persistence puzzle by applying the robust control approach of Hansen and Sargent (2008). In line with the literature suggesting that inflation persistence may be affected by the monetary policy design and its institutional characteristics, we find that inflation persistence is positively related to the central bank's preference for model robustness. In effect, model uncertainty and robust decision making may be considered as a mechanism generating inflation persistence, for a given non-zero degree of autocorrelation in supply-side shocks. Further, the policy implication is that the central bank's monetary policy under model uncertainty renders, in terms of the sacrifice ratio, the output-cost of inflation stabilization more important.
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When campaigning for reelection, incumbent parties' promises to voters are constrained by their records in office, while opposition parties can use their time away from power to develop new platforms. In this paper, I introduce in...
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When campaigning for reelection, incumbent parties' promises to voters are constrained by their records in office, while opposition parties can use their time away from power to develop new platforms. In this paper, I introduce incumbent policy persistence in a dynamic game of electoral competition between two policy-motivated parties and characterise the long-run outcomes of its Markov perfect equilibria. Incumbents' reduced policy flexibility leads to alternation in power and policy dynamics that converge to alternations at policies equally preferred by the median voter. Convergence of policies towards the median is a robust equilibrium outcome while convergence to the median is not; while alternations far from the median are never limits of equilibrium dynamics, alternations close to the median can be reached only if policy dynamics start exactly there. I show that these results are robust to voters being forward-looking and to limited policy commitment by parties.
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